My 2017 Analysis on the next decade in economics

This analysis was initially written on 26/4/2017

My understanding of the current international economic environment is that low levels of economic growth are expected in the developed world for the next decade, along with continued large opportunities and risks for employment with the constant emergence of disruptive technologies. This is changing the way products are produced, marketed, and distributed, not to mention business models themselves and chances for future stable employment.

Politics both nationally and internationally seems focussed on “winning back” local control partially in the hope that this will help address this employment uncertainty. The mainstream debate nationally and internationally though is still on whether and how government intervention should be involved in creating more inclusive and stable economic opportunities, or whether it should be the role of the market to allocate resources.

Reflection from my 2020 viewpoint, written 11/1/2020

So far, this analysis has been moderately accurate, but lacks a lot in terms of specific predictions - it’s a bit difficult to disprove.

We have definitely seen the continued success of centre-right and Right-Wing “populist”parties in both developed and developing countries, witness Brexit, the election of Boris Johnson, reelection of Scott Morrison in Australia and Duterte in Philippines, and the election of Bolsonaro in Brazil. My prediction is that Trump will also win the 2020 election no matter who he faces.

We have seen that countries have raised tariffs between US and China, but the idea of “taking back” economic control has been implemented not so widely outside those two major powers, due to an understanding of how destructive it would be economically. The UK have left the EU, but it would be incorrect to point that this was driven by a beief in the need for economic independence (or it was a weak force), but rather, border protection/ability to restrict immigration and a longing for political independence - for rules to not be made external to the country (i.e.”From Brussels”).